A Player Model is at the heart of our NFL DFS product. They contain our expectations for each player, but that’s not all that you will discover inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: Likely hood, ceiling, and projected ownership all influence those players considered the best plays each week with salary.
So let’s go to our models and discuss several players with the greatest potential and the highest values for the current week.
Of course, don’t forget about the tools we have at FantasyLabs to help you out including the Lineup Optimizer for if you want to generate 1-300 lineups for you automatically, or the Lineup Builder if you prefer to build your lineups yourself.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator allows you to form complex DFS lineups based on the principles of modeling.
Do check out our complete SimLabs guide should you like here.
Finally, do not forget to look at all the available projections to be bought (Chris Raybon’s comes with the subscription to FantasyLabs) under the FantasyLabs Models. Finally, NOW SUBSCRIBERS can check out and buy Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from the Sale part of this website. The actual calculations coming from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available should you choose to be a subscriber of these particular sites (that our optimizer is an additional feature).
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson at Cleveland Browns – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Across the spring’s DraftKings and FanDuel point projections, Jackson boasts the fieriest outlook in three of the herein-featured outlooks by Sean Koerner, Chris Rayon, and THE BLITZ. Often, I prefer to combine them in an even 1+1+1 three-part mixture and will do so for this post, however, aggregated or in individual form, it’s apparent; Jackson is the best pick for this week.
He has been at the elite level for most of the season and has outperformed the salaries in five of his matches out of the seven. On Monday Night Football last week Jackson passed for 281 yards and five TDs and also rushed for over 50 yards. He ended up with 35.44 DraftKings points – the most for any player all week.
The only issue with starting Jackson this week his that the Browns may be very poor after they traded Amari Cooper at $6,000 and lost Deshaun Watson to an Achilles injury for the season. In some games, the Ravens have built a comfortable lead on opponents and proceed to pound the ground which underutilizes Jackson.
He has surpassed the 40 yards mark in rushing credits in every game this season and has sophomore numbers of 15 touchdown passes receiving only 2interceptions. He has a very high floor and a high ceiling though some way he won’t be forced to hit the ceiling this week in Cleveland.
Jackson has been shown to be the best QB well if you are willing to pay the big bucks for a star QB.
Top Value: Bo Nix vs. Carolina Panthers – 5600DK, 6900FD
Nix is of course another high-upside QB because of the rushing floor that he brings to the team, and he is still super droppable this week and has a pleasant price point for this home game against the Panthers. They also lead all players in the DraftKings and FanDuel aggregate projections this week in Projected Plus/Minus: Nix is first.
Nix was last week’s standout having thrown for 164 yards and running for 75 yards for a seasonhi on ten carries leading the Broncos in their victory over the Saints. He has had 35+ yard rushes four times this year and 60+ yard rushes in the last two games. He only managed 14.06 DraftKings points last week, though he was notably left out of Denver’s scoring attempts, and should get back into the points column this week against Carolina.
Carolina has let the seventh-highest point total for DraftKings to QBs this year, giving up 14 passing TDs in seven games and 228.3 passing yards a game on average. Starting the season with Bryce Young ($4,900) at quarterback, the Panthers could have issues with ball security against the Broncos’ stout front seven which should yield more opportunities for Nix.
His ownership projection is also high since they have naturally become a classic smash spot for this tournament, If you’re looking for more differentiation then Trevor Lawrence ($5,600) and Geno Smith ($5,900) are good options if you’re staying under $6,000 on DraftKings. This strategy works if you’re playing in cash games or are distinguishing at other spots because Nix is a cheap play since he is packed with many possibilities.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Green Bay Packers – Breece Hall for $7300 on DraftKings, $7900 on FanDuel
Clutch Hall is in a smash spot, and the guy with the highest ceiling projection at running back this week is even though his salary is outside the top 10 for players projected to play on FanDuel and the top seven or eight on DraftKings. He is also ranked the best in our Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hall enters this divisional showdown after two huge performances in nights games. Despite the Jets losing the two matches, Hall went above the salaries expectations as he has done four other times in his seven games this year. He Only had 24.9 DraftKings and 113 rushing yards against the Buffalo Bills before he exploded last week as a receiver catching 103 yards and scoring 29.1 more DraftKings points against the Steelers.
As play caller for the Thunderbirds, Downing would have originally been the focus of the offense but after his appointment to head up the team’s offense Hall has now become the priority. While Davante Adams ($7,100) is now target reception volume de facto mascot with this team, Hall has been the most successful contributor in fantasy football. That should continue this week since the Patriots have been a dream matchup for running backs this year.
All season long, opposing running backs have gotten a rushing touchdown and have scored 10 total touchdowns sizing in averages of 122.7 rushing yards/week and 33 receiving yards/week against the New England defense. Hall, in the same matchup last week 3, scored a touchdown and had a total of 18.3 in fantasy points.
Hall’s ownership projection is still on the interesting level alongside Nix, but he just looks like a free space play in GPP this week because of the workload, matchup, and price level.
Top Value: Javonte Williams against Carolina Panthers – $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
With Montee Lattimore as a QB you could buy the game script that the Broncos will be playing from ahead against the Panthers and Williams is a good play at RB that can be taken together with Nix. Williams has the second-best Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the combined affair on FanDuel and the third best on DraftKings.
It was monster game that Williams had against the Saints last Thursday, where he logged 88 yards, two TDs and 26.1 DraftKings points on 14 rushes. He added three catches for 23 yard addition.
Although he has been relegated to playing in a time share with Jaleel McLaughlin for $4,600 while playing 60% of snaps or more in each of the last three weeks. He also has multi-reception games in six consecutive weeks and scored more than ten DraftKings points in three of the final four games.
The Panthers have given the opposition’s running backs a chance to rack up the most DraftKings points of the season. Defensive backs are terrible yielding an incredible 14 touchdowns in merely 7 games and an average of 133.3 rushing and 27.4 receiving yards per game. For both Williams and McLaughlin there should be abundant production if the Broncos play ahead against Young and the Panthers in Denver.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase vs Philadelphia Eagles – $ 8,500 on Draftkings Vs $9,200 on FanDuel
In the ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Chase has the highest projection of all receivers across the two sites. When you have 26 teams to pick from, you’ll want to secure all the value available on the slate, and thus spend up for Chase and get him in the ceiling for matches against the Eagles.
The star receiver has scored six TDs in his past five games and scored a pair against the Ravens in his last home game. In the previous home match, he scored two touchdowns and 118 yards for the Commanders and then he scored 39.3 and 29.8 DK points in those two homestand games.
Expecting at least one touchdown and at least 100 yards out of him is likely a bit too high but he is that kind of player capable of that at home against the Eagles. In fantasy football, Philly’s secondary has given up the 10th most points to opposing wideouts. They’ve been better since their bye week, but they have only played the Browns and the Giants who had no answer to an elite passing game like the Bengals.
He has not been getting a lot of targets like other more glamorous wide receivers, but when he does get a chance, he makes it big. The match between Bengals and Eagles has the second-highest over/under on the slate and in general, thus, Chase’s upside remains through the roof in a high-scoring context.
Top Value: New York Giants Wide Receiver Jalen McMillan playing against Atlanta Falcons – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
I like the Bucs this week because with DFS salaries being paid before Monday night, it means value since both Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) both suffered major injuries on Monday and should leave a lot of targets open for pickings. McMillan ranks the best in Projected Plus/Minus of all our receivers in the aggregate projections on DraftKings while ranking fourth in FanDuel, where his teammate Trey Palmer ranks first. Another player that is most likely to offer great value his Starling Shepard.
McMillan looks like the safest of those three receivers because he was active on Mondays as well. Washington rookie was targeted eight times for his career first time on Monday but only successful in catching three passes for fifteen yards, but he could breakout this week. Only Godwin and Cade Otton had more targets than McMillan in the week 7 match.
Those who will get the targets should provide good value because the Falcons have given the 9th most DraftKings points to receivers this season. When these teams met in Week 5, Bucs’ receivers accumulated 130 yards in receptions and three touchdowns. The receiving corps will look considerably different this week, but McMillan has a decent shot at pacing the way and delivers elite value if he rises to the occasion.
For a more out-there value option, Ladd McConkey at $5,100 looks good in our DraftKings projections, as does Broncos’ Devaughn Vele at $3,400 if you’re opting for the Nix stack. In addition to Palmer and Vele, Jakobi Meyers has been a great value to plays in FanDuel, as long as he will fit his ankled injury that has sidelined him in the last two games.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Miami Dolphins – USDB on DraftKings and USDB on FanDuel
Naturally, the headline game of the tight ends, Brock Bowers and Travis Kelce, is tasty, but the highest stacking option on both platforms for Daily Fantasy is Trey McBride, who and the Cardinals will play in Miami. McBride costs less than both star tight ends and has a higher projection on ceiling than both on both sites.
McBride grabbed five passes for 51 yards in the game last week against the Chargers and surpassed salary-point projection on FanDuel for three consecutive weeks after coming back from concussion. He has had at least five receptions and targets 50 plus yards in all three of those games and he is receiving 8. 0 targets per game from Kyler Murray. He hasn’t scored yet this season but seems due for positive touchdown regression.
While McBride is on a short week as the Cardinals come off a Thursday night game, he performs well through floor and volume in weekly projections as the only consistent receiver on the Arizona team. Especially if Tua Tagovailoa plays this week then this game could definitely turn into a shoot out early that will lead to a lot of volume for McBride.
Top Value: Seahawks Cade Otton goes head to head with Atlanta Falcons – $3500 for DraftKings, $5200 for FanDuel
For this case, the value options in pass-catching from Tampa Buccaneers are safe and assured since Otton has been a decent contribution for his team, and he is cheap in point per dollar this week. He emerges with the highest Projected Plus/Minus than any other tight end on the site of DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate pro intervening projection. But even if you opt for a premium pick on a TE or a No.1 option at mid-tier like David Njoku, Otton surely has the potential to be taken at flex position when you consider the value points.
Vs the Ravens on Monday, Otton scored his season best with eight catches for 10 targets and 100 yards and 21 fantasy points on the game. He didn’t even get a touchdown and he was tremendous last night helpful in a follow-up absence of Evans. With Godwin also nonexistent this week he will be that much more occupied this week against the Falcons.
To be fair, Otton built a nice streak going and scored better than salary-based expectations on DraftKings in each of the last five weeks with an APPM of +4.6 per game. He has four targets or more in every one of those five games, including the game he played against the falcons.
Compounding it is that the Falcons have allowed five catches to tight ends in each of the last two weeks, 49 yards against the Panthers, and 70 yards against the Seahawks. Neither of those teams have a tight end which can do as much as Otton and Mayfield will rely on the security blanket of a tight end since there is less proven talent in other positions.
With so much volume that can be had at such a low salary, look for Otton to be a great value this week. If you’re seeking for Contrarian play, Jonnu Smith is $3,600 on DraftKings and Dalton Kincaid is $4,000 on FanDuel.
